Donald Trump’s proposal for a $2,000 “dividend” sounded intentionally straightforward: slap tariffs on foreign goods, collect the revenue, and send the proceeds directly to American families. But behind the catchy pitch, the numbers — and the legal realities — paint a far more complicated picture. So far, tariff collections fall well short of what such a program would require. Total revenue sits under $200 billion, a fraction of what would be needed to sustain broad payments to households. And much of that money is now tied up in ongoing legal battles. The Supreme Court recently signaled deep skepticism toward Trump’s...
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